News from Rafa's website: Rafa's first opponent in Indian Wells will be the qualifier from Colombia, Santiago Giraldo. This guy just defeated the Austrian Eschauer, and will face our Rafa this weekend. Mariska from The NetherlandsThe Second Opening DayWritten by
Valerie Brighouse of
Tamworth Staffordshire U.K.
Originally posted at Rafa's Website
on "Fan Page"
With apologies to the continent of Australia, this week marks
the true, or at least logical, start of the tennis season. I know
the Aussie Open is a Slam, and we love it, but it's also a
glorious false start, a big tournament on a big island cut
off from the rest of the schedule.
Now we've reached mainland. I don't say that only because
the tour has come to the U.S., and the California desert in
particular. I say it because it's "go time," as the cliché has it,
from here on there's little rest for the weary, all the way
through to the end of the U.S. Open. With that in mind,
I've written a post for ESPN on five players heading for
Indian Wells who are in need of do-overs to begin their
2008 campaigns (it doesn't seem to have been posted yet).
Also with that in mind, here's the customary bracket
analysis of the years first Masters tournament. Its fully
loaded on the mens side, but has its share of WTA
absentees Henin and the Williamses, most prominent
among them. We'll just start without them.
The Men
First Quarter
Competition is sparse for Roger Federer in the top half
here, which may be just what he needs, considering his
early exit at IW last year and his shaky recent health.
The first seed he might play is No. 25 Nicolas Almagro,
who just won a clay-court tournament but is 0-5 against
Federer. Still, it could be his toughest early test,
considering that the next seed he might face is
Tommy Robredo, who is 0-8 against Federer.
Andy Murray and Andy Roddick are the top seeds on the
bottom side. Of the two, Murray has a slightly harder
road, with Marat Safin a potential second-round
opponent; Roddick may be looking at another showdown
with Fernando Verdasco (please God, no).
Murray-Roddick would be a fun. They've had their battles
and have both been in pretty good form. After his Dubai
run, I'll take the American Andy in three in a wild night
match. Then he'll lose to Federer.
Player to watch: Marin Cilic. The big Croatian (are there
small Croatian men?) may be embarking on his
pre-breakout season (like, say, Djokovic in 2005).
Semifinalist: Federer
Second Quarter
Welcome back to the Nalbandian-Davydenko quarterfinal.
How we've missed you! In between those two eternal
enigmas, the heavy hitters are Hewitt, Youzhny,
Gonzalez, and Ferrero. But I wouldn't count out
Igor Andreev. The Russian had a weak start to the
year, and he never lives up to expectations, but the
slow courts and true bounce feed his monster
forehand. He made the quarters here in 2006, the
best he's done at a Masters so far.
Giants to watch: Isner and Querrey are stomping
around these parts, as is the wild card Mario Ancic,
who starts another comeback against Gael Monfils.
Potential early match to watch: Nalbandian against
the bruising Ernest Gulbis.
Semifinalist: Andreev
Third Quarter
It's the shotmakers Djokovic, Kohlschreiber,
Baghdatis versus the pesky grinders Ferrer,
Monaco, Nieminen, Cañas. Djokovic is most
likely to succeed, of course. He likes the courts,
he wants to catch Nadal in the rankings, and he's
a cut above everyone else in the bottom half.
A quarterfinal against Baghdatis or Ferrer would
be a test, but one that he'll pass.
Potential early match to watch: Kohlschreiber
vs. Malisse, two guys who know how to hit the ball.
Semifinalist: Djokovic
Fourth Quarter
Who's left? First we've got Rafael Nadal, a man both
chasing and being chased in the rankings. He's got the
daunting task of defending points from his title run
last year. But it's safe to say he's ready for the challenge,
and this is the best hard-court anywhere for him. His
quarter is not too brutal, either Gasquet, Tsonga, Blake,
and Mathieu are the top guns. Blake has never lost to
Nadal, but they wouldn't play until the quarters; Tsonga
toyed with Rafa in Melbourne, but he's still an unproven
commodity as of now. Seeing if he can prove himself may
be the most intriguing element of the whole draw.
First-round match not to watch: Spadea vs. Ginepri.
Semifinalist: Nadal
Semifinals: Federer d. Andreev; Djokovic d. Nadal
Final: Djokovic d. Federer
The Women
First Quarter
Its still a little odd, at least to me, to think of Ana Ivanovic
as the top seed at an event of this size, but there she is
right at the top of this quarter. I like her chances of
getting through to the semis. The next highest seed
is Nicole Vaidisova, who faces a tough potential early
match with Tamira Paszek. If Vaidisova gets through
that, she's still a long shot. Ivanovic just beat her in
Dubai 4 and love.
Semifinalist: Ivanovic
Second Quarter
This one isn't pretty, in more than one sense. Jelena
Jankovic is the player to beat, and there arent many
near her who are likely to pull it off. How do these
seeds grab you: Sugiyama, Medina-Garrigues,
Razzano, Bammer, Govortsova, and Bartoli.
There's one other I didn't mention, and that's Lindsay
Davenport. This could be her best chance at going
deep at a tournament of significance.
Semifinalist: Jankovic
Third Quarter
It gets a little better over here, with Sharapova trying
to stay perfect in 08; Hantuchova trying to defend her
inexplicable title of last year; Mirza and Peer walloping
away; and Mauresmowell, what is she doing at this event,
anyway? I hope she plays well; the womens game could
use a little more of her.
Semifinalist: Sharapova
Fourth Quarter
Every year I pick Na Li to do something significant,
and every year she doesn't. Should I pick her to upset
second seed Svetlana Kuznetsova and come out of this
section? No, I'm not ready for that, even though Li has
shown some signs of life after being off the tour for
much of 2007. Radwanska and Safarova are also
hanging out in the top half, but Kuznetsova is still
the woman to beat.
Semifinalist: Kuznetsova
Semifinals: Sharapova d. Kuznetsova; Jankovic d. Ivanovic
Final: Sharapova d. Jankovic
I'll be out in the desert sun trying to keep the heat-based
hallucinations to a minimum next week, along with Pete
Bodo and James Martin from our office. Anyone else
who's going to be there, let me know.
No Indian Wells on ESPN or Tennis Channel this time;
it's all moved to Fox Sport Net, which means coverage
will be hit and miss throughout the country. Not good,
but all the more reason to make the trip.
= You are so much fun to watch. 
VAMOS, RAFA!
